Three years

It has been three years since I posted on this here blog. My reasons for abandoning my scribblings have been various. I took on a new job, one which raised my visibility in certain small corners of the political world, with the perceived danger that my ramblings would be mistaken for official policy. I had other outlets for expressing my opinions, including a Facebook page on which I amassed a considerable coterie of "friends" and, for a while, a radio show. I had less time to write this kind of writing.

The passing of Christopher Hitchens, however, has woken me from my slumber, however briefly. I met him in, I think, 2007 when he was on his book tour for "god Is Not Great." He engaged in a genial debate with Marvin Olasky, inventor of the phrase "compassionate conservativism" and a former Bush apparatchik. I say "genial" because Olasky's advocacy of the proposition "religion does more good than bad" was so tepid as to make me wonder whether he believed his own bullshit. I suspect he feared - knew - that were he to attempt an actual defense of the role of religion in Bush Administration debacles like pregnancy crisis centers, the war in Iraq, and other "faith-based initiatives," he would be eviscerated by Hitchens, who bantered good-naturedly with Olasky and moderator Evan Smith, but exuded a leonine alertness for opportunities to advance the thesis of his book's subtitle: "Religion Poisons Everything."

After the 'debate,' he signed books and chatted up the crowd. When I told him that I'd been a monk for ten years but was now somewhere between agnosticism and atheism, he was genuinely curious and spent about five minutes in conversation with me. I suspect he had many such conversations on his book tour.

Here's something else: when I was keeping this journal before, my goal was to be widely read. I hoped to publish ideas that were interesting enough, and frequently enough, that I would gain a readership. Now, I feel a little differently. The desire to write has been focused inward: to let me tell myself my own story. As I grow older, I find myself looking backwards more, wanting to recount the moments that formed me, wanting to tell the story of my life.

More on that soon. For now, I mourn the passing of a great intellect and fantastic writer.

Ed Sills On The Election

Ed Sills is a good friend who covered Texas politics for the San Antonio Express-News before becoming communications director for the Texas AFL-CIO in the mid-1990s. He's an astute observer of Texas politics. He's written an interesting essay laying out his optimism about next Tuesday. Here it is, reprinted in full:

If It Looks, Acts and Quacks Like a Big Turnout…
I dislike polls, not pollsters. Pollsters are great folks, usually smart and often brilliant. But the best of them will tell you that even if they are absolutely scrupulous in all their endeavors, accuracy depends on the turnout models they choose to employ and the vagaries of the human condition.
Sure, pollsters will have the right results, on average, but so will anyone who observes politics carefully, studies districts and makes note of trends. The monkeys trying to type Shakespeare will be right half the time, too. Most national polls now show Barack Obama winning the presidency – a stable prediction for the last few weeks – but the results range from well within the margin of error to well into the double digits. In 2008, polling remains an inexact science and anyone who relies to a moral certainty on the polls deserves the results when they don’t pan out.
Early vote totals, however, are not a poll. In pivotal state after pivotal state, Democrats are turning out early in larger numbers than Republicans, and those votes are in the bank going into Tuesday’s elections. I am a big fan of Ockham’s Razor when it comes to political observation; you don’t make things more complicated than necessary when trying to figure out what is happening. Voters from the two major parties don’t “take turns” to the degree that GOP scenarios for national victory suggest. More likely, we have seen most of the eager partisans from both sides cast ballots so far and we will see traditionalists who like to vote on Election Day and those who were undecided on one or more races go to the polls on Tuesday.
I’m no non-partisan – we should all be hopeless romantics when it comes to big elections -- and recognize that sometimes hopes and wishes overtake the data for anyone rooting for a candidate. For that reason, I will stay out of the business of predicting a winner in any specific race in this forum, except to say this: We are probably in for some shockeroos next Tuesday.
Here are a few observations that don’t touch on the actual likelihood of any one candidate’s victory:
1) Tuesday will be a late night in the presidential contest and many Texas races – not necessarily because the results will be in doubt but because at least in urban and suburban areas the lines are going to be so long that polls won’t actually close until well after the official 7 p.m. deadline, when anyone in line still gets to vote;
2) The early vote turnout in the top 15 counties is up 50 percent from 2004 and, based on anecdotal evidence of huge turnouts today, looks like it might end up close to half of the 7.4 million Texans who voted in the entire 2004 election. Can that pace keep up? Almost certainly not, because early voting has accelerated in popularity every election. Shaving off fractions, in 1996 the early vote in the top 15 counties was 16 percent of the overall total; in 2000, it was 24 percent; in 2004, it was 32 percent. If that pattern follows and early voting in those counties becomes 40 percent this year, it would not be a shocker. Do the math: If 3.7 million is 40 percent of the vote total, we could be looking at a total Texas turnout of 9.25 million, or 68.5 percent, meaning the winner of the presidential contest will almost certainly have to break George W. Bush’s vote-harvesting record of 4.52 million in 2004 just to get the victory. Needless to say, the turnout could end differently if these assumptions are wrong, but my gut says to take the “high” over the “low” bet on this one. At the levels of turnout we have seen in early voting (which confirm the big turnout in the primary elections), surprises become possible throughout Texas. The voter suppression programs simply aren’t working in 2008;
3) African-American turnout in Texas will set all sorts of records and sway the results in Harris County. Participation levels among African-Americans have been good to bordering on excellent around the state in recent elections, and Obama’s candidacy is producing a blowout turnout across the nation in this demographic. Earlier today in Georgia, hours’ worth of lines were extending out the door in minority precincts, where nearly half the electorate had already voted going into today and 35 percent of that vote was estimated to be African-American, compared to 25 percent in the 2004 election. Harris County, where one-third of all voters had cast ballots going into today, has trounced its past early voting performance. The improvement in Harris County’s early vote this year over 2004 is second only to Fort Bend County, and the makeup of the turnout has prompted long-time observers to posit significant advantages to date among Democratic primary voters. It’s not a stretch to suggest that a big chunk of this improvement in performance comes from African-American voters who are overwhelmingly favoring Obama and other Democrats. And Harris County will cast, by far, more ballots than any other county in Texas.
4) Hispanic turnout is not as low as the early-vote comparisons might indicate. While the raw early vote totals in Cameron, El Paso, Hidalgo and Nueces counties lag the other 11 biggest counties, voters in those counties, too, are casting early ballots at a record pace. Nueces and Hidalgo counties are each more than 40 percent above their early-vote totals for 2004. In the end, the Hispanic vote will be a bigger factor than ever;
5) Barring a calamity between now and Tuesday, this will be the first election since 1992 in which dire economic straits will be the clear No. 1 issue at the polls, with everything else a distant second. Yesterday’s report that a major measure of American productivity actually went down over the last three months couples with the continued fallout over the collapse of financial institutions and growing numbers of layoffs. As the price of oil sinks, Texans are slowly realizing -- but maybe not realizing fully by Election Day – that we are not immune to the downturn. John McCain was onto something when he elevated Joe the Plumber, country singer, to mythic levels. (My suggestion for Joe’s first single: “I’m Always on a Train Out of Town”). Unfortunately for McCain, Obama has fully anticipated the significance of economic issues to this election for the last two years;
6) I can’t speak for Republicans, but my hunch is that the GOP weekend turnout program is in place, ready to go and will succeed at reaching the Republican base. I can’t speak for Democrats, either, but the single-mindedness of this year’s get-out-the-vote operations is unprecedented. For the first time since the days of Jimmy Carter, the Democratic presidential nominee has played a major role and has spent money to organize new voters. The giant turnout in March, aided by both the Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns, was no accident, and everyone didn’t just forget about it afterward and go home, as county conventions strained building capacities and voters carried their newfound activism into the summer and fall. Texas is Texas, but Democrats have a chance to demonstrate how relativity works on turnout numbers;
7) Though the buzzards have not yet gotten within pecking distance, signs of defeat for McCain in the conservative media are not hard to find. George Will, Peggy Noonan and other reliable Republicans jumped ship weeks ago. Wall Street Journal columnist Kimberley Strassel, not a liberal by any stretch, today wrote: “All eyes are on Tuesday. For the GOP, the real question is Wednesday. That’s the day the party will survey the damage of the 2008 election, and have to decide what it wants to be….” When discussion on the right of whether Sarah Palin is the one for 2012 overwhelms whether McCain is the one for 2008, you know the Republican tea leaves are set to “ghastly”. That said, the narrowing in some polls, the long-simmering thirst in the Democratic Party and the possibility that the GOP is playing possum all but promise an all-out effort through the last minutes of voting on Tuesday. My side has seen enough false omens to create a new art form in the field of divination;
8) At what level can a national trend penetrate Texas, which is in the top five Republican performers of the last 15 years? Sen. John Cornyn clearly thinks he has the win in the bag, because he has never gone negative and that is contrary to his history as a campaigner. Rep. Rick Noriega, Cornyn’s challenger, had no money for the kind of air blitz Cornyn has bought, but then again, he hasn’t spent TV time wandering like a hermit near canyons, among cow patties and out of Shepler’s. Look at the front page of Cornyn’s web site. It’s the incumbent dressed like a cowboy hanging with horses. I like most cowboys and all horses, but in a campaign that has the run of the mass media, the aversion in ad after ad to placing the senator with other people ought to be raising eyebrows. Noriega, for his part, has dramatically improved his ability to connect with people throughout the campaign, though he didn’t have the means to connect with 13.5 million of them;
9) In the aggregate, the Texas House situation is as well studied as any in recent years. The Democrats have six or so especially difficult seats to defend, but also have potential pickups in many more seats. Everyone is looking at the same 20 to 30 contests. If 2008 is like most elections, Texans will pick and choose and the partisan breakdown may be subject to rolls of the statistical dice in more than one election. If this election is like, say, the 1994 one because of the character of the turnout, however, Republicans may be sitting around wondering where it all fell apart (just as Democrats did when Jack Brooks, Carl Parker and a host of others bit the dust in my first headachy election as a union communicator);
10) This is a historic year. Really. The upset nomination and ascension to the “favorite” position of Obama has made a deep mark on American politics, however 2008 ends. (And, based on the playing field of the final weeks – dominated by Bush states like North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Indiana, segueing into states like Georgia and Arizona – it has the appearance of ending well for Obama.) The trials and tribulations of the economy are reaching historic levels and the international situation is perilous. The next president will almost certainly face the ancient curse of living in interesting times. How historic the election will be in Texas depends, as always, on the turnout. If the magnetic draw of the choices in this election accelerates demographic trends already in place, Tuesday’s election in Texas will be closely analyzed for many years to come.

Opie And The Fonz Come Out For Obama

Ron Howard, Andy Griffith and Henry Winkler reprise their characters to encourage Americans to vote for Barack Obama. Way cool!

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

Report: Sarah Palin Acted Improperly, Illegally

(Cross-posted at Burnt Orange Report.)

The Washington Post, among others, is reporting that Sarah Palin acted, at best, improperly and, at worst, illegally in pressuring Walt Monegan to fire her sister's former husband, an Alaska state trooper.

A 263- page report released yesterday by the Alaska Joint Legislative Council found that, while Palin had legal authority to fire Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan,

his dismissal came in part because he refused to remove her sister's ex-husband from the Alaska State Troopers.
Investigator Stephen Branchflower found evidence that Palin actively joined her husband, Todd, in pursuing a personal vendetta against the trooper and that she used state employees to try to settle a score in a bitter family feud.

The Joint Legislative Council is a bipartisan group of legislative leaders that acts on state issues during periods when the Alaska Legislature is not in session, much like our Legislative Budget Board. They hired investigator Stephen Branchflower (no relation to Ben's Longbranch Barbecue) to conduct the investigation. According to the Post,

Branchflower found evidence that Palin actively joined her husband, Todd, in pursuing a personal vendetta against the trooper and that she used state employees to try to settle a score in a bitter family feud.
"Governor Palin knowingly permitted a situation to continue where impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda, to wit: To get Trooper Michael Wooten fired."

I've read large chunks of the report, which can be found here. The impression I'm left with can best be summed up in the phrase former faith-based initiatives czar John DiIulio used to describe the Bush-Cheney-Rove White House: Mayberry Machiavellis. The picture of Sarah and "First Dude" Todd Palin that comes acoss is petty, vindictive, and not even remotely presidential.

Second Debate: Behind the Post-Debate Numbers

Last night, John McCain and Barack Obama met in Nashville for the second of their three debates, the "town hall" debate. A poll taken immediately after the debate by CBS and Knowledge Networks shows that undecided voters believe Obama "won" the debate, with 40% saying Obama did better and 26% saying McCain did. That, of course, was the one-liner that folks got about CBS's research effort.

But reading the poll results themselves was, to me, enlightening. CBS did before-and-after questions of 516 undecided voters. One question was whether the voters thought Obama "would make the right decisions about the economy." Before the debate, 55% thought Obama would make the rights decisions; afterwards, that number climbed to 68% -- 20 points higher than McCain's post-debate number.

On the question whether "he understand voters' needs and problems," the Obama-McCain contrast numbers soared from 59%-33% pre-debate to 80%-44% post-debate. Think of that bottom line: almost twice as many undecided voters think Obama "gets" them as think McCain does.

The McCain attack since this summer has been the Barack Obama is "not one of us" -- that he's exotic and unusual; inexperienced and unprepared. These numbers show that the McCain meme is not working.

Sarah Palin and the Bush Doctrine

I saw this quote in John Cole's Balloon Juice blog and had to share:

And Sarah Palin is the distilled essence of wingnut. She has it all. She is dishonest. She is a religious nut. She is incurious. She is anti-science. She is inexperienced. She abuses her authority. She hides behind executive privilege. She is a big spender. She works from the gut and places a greater value on instinct than knowledge.

Pretty good summary, eh?

You Know You're In Trouble When ...

... you're the vice-presidential candidate for the Republican Party, with a strong record of family values rhetoric and related moral superiority, and you have to announce that your 17-year old daughter is unmarried and pregnant.

You know you're REALLY in trouble when you have to make the announcement in order to rebut rumors that you already covered for her by pretending to have delivered a child in April because THAT child was hers.

McCain Introduces Palin

Watching John McCain introduce Sarah Palin. It turns out today is his 72nd birthday and her and her husband's 20th anniversary.
Audience applauds when he says something about sports ... apropos of nothing.
She speaks. Awful voice.
Five kids, including a son who's in the Army.
Telling her story. It's inspiring, but not at a national level. She's not running for Congress, for chrissakes.
Lots about ethics and corruption and integrity. She's on the wrong team and doesn't know it.
"Nobody more committed to change in American than John McCain?" Ex-squeeze me? It sounds like they are in denial.
Finally talks about McCain's toughness. Finally, an actual attempt to draw a distinction, not just gloss over their own record.
It sounds like she wrote her own speech, the kind the mayor of a town gives when he or she is introducing the candidate. Did the campaign even see this, much less write it?
"Nu-ku-lar" -- it's like a genetic aberration in the GOP.
She leads her own clapping, like she's the head cheerleader.
Reference to women's suffrage -- did the Republicans oppose it then?
Pays tribute to Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton, tries to put on their mantle.
If I'm a red-meat Republican in the audience or listening in on TV, my head must be ready to explode. She's bragged about being a union member, about having women on the ticket, etc.
Clearly appealing to women to abandon Obama and go with McCain.
"Thank you, and I God Bless America."

Overall impression: LIGHTWEIGHT.

Sarah Palin To Be McCain's Running Mate

The Washington Post and the Burnt Orange Report -- two of the most trusted names in political journalism -- are reporting that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will be introduced later this morning as John McCain's running mate. Chris Cillizza thinks Palin, although she is anti-choice, will give disaffected women an alternative to Obama and let the PUMAs vent their anger by voting Republican in the most important election of their lifetimes. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Matt Glazer thinks Palin ends Republican ability to talk about Obama's inexperience and opens new vistas of Republican corruption for public inspection.

In 1984, when Walter Mondale selected Geraldine Ferraro to be his running mate in a battle against Ronald Reagan, there were a lot of platitudes about the gesture to women, but ultimately her selection was viewed as a stunt, a "Hail Mary" to try and shake up the dynamics of the election. Is this the same?

I imagine we'll hear a lot about the "culture of corruption" in Alaska GOP politics. I also imagine we'll hear a lot about the enormous subsidy that the people of the United States pay to Alaska. "Hey, hard-working single mother in Ohio, how do you like that we export a ton of your taxes to Alaska every year?"

Post-Denver Thoughts

I blogged about Barack Obama's terrific acceptance speech last night. Now, some concluding thoughts on this historic Democratic National Convention.

First of all, we should not forget how amazing the fact that Obama is the nominee is. Most people who will read this in an era when civil rights for blacks, while not perfectly realized (even today!), were established national policy. Most people in my generation grew up in world where no one thought a black person would be President in our lifetime. Yet, here we are. I'm very proud of how far the country has come in your lifetime.

Obama needed to do three things in his speech:

1. introduce himself and share his story for people who were paying attention for the first time;
2. set out some specifics of his agenda, partly because that's his job and partly to answer critics who say he's just oratory; and
3. show Democrats he can throw a punch.

I thought he did all three. Years from now, lines from the speech will be quoted as examples of great oratory.

The Republicans, who used to be masters of the staging and dramatics of political events, have nothing to compare with this. It's like we just saw a movie with DeNiro and Hoffman and Streep and Swank and they're doing a remake with Sandler and Van Damme. (Apologies to those who think Adam Sandler is the greatest actor of his generation, but I have a news flash: he's not.)
So their convention will seem dull by comparison, and it will be. Apparently their spin is that they WANT IT THAT WAY. Yeah, right ....

The Democrats should be as united as they can get. It's time for them to roll up their sleeves and bring the same passion, tireless effort and desire for change to the general election that they showed in the primaries.

Liveblogging Thursday night

I'm going to live-blog the events in Denver tonight, with my TV mostly on MSNBC but also watching CNN and Fox.

6:30 -- will.i.am and john legend singing "Yes We Can." They sound wonderful. Their backing band is tight. They're trying to get the crowd to sing along, but either the TV mikes cannot pick up the singing or no one in Mile-High Stadium ever heard the song before. I think the latter is unlikely.

7:00 -- Sheryl Crow just finished her set. Man, she looks great. She sang some of her old classics, all with a message buried in the song or chorus:

"A change will do you good ... "

She also sang a cool song that had something about "out of your head and into your heart ... " Time for research.

Watching her, I am struck by how much the Tired Old White Guy (TOWG) chorus must hate all this. Buchanan, O'Reilly, Bill Bennett (I thought he was in jail), etc. -- they trash-talk Obama and the Democrats all they can, but underneath it all is a sense of being OUT OF IT.

UPDATE, 7:35 p.m.: Stevie Wonder on stage now. He sat there quietly for a minute or so, then said, "I love you," and the place erupted. Both CNN and MSNBC have cut away for him, although Fox is showing the O'Reilly show. O'Reilly is promising a new SERIES on how bad Barack Obama is, to debut on Fox on September 8. Really, O'Reilly?

UPDATE, 7:40 p.m.: Stevie Wonder singing "Signed, Sealed, Delivered." Wolf Blitzer and Donna Brazile dancing on CNN. No such luck with Chris Matthews and Norah O'Donnell, or the new kid on the block, Savannah Guthrie.

Meanwhile, on Fox, the TOWG chorus drones on -- O'Reilly interviewing Dark Prince Karl Rove. Obama's got problems, they intone, as 85,000 people dance to Stevie Wonder. Yutzes.

UPDATE, 7:45 p.m. -- Al Gore speaking.

"John McCain has promised to use the sam policies Bush did. Hey, I believe in recycling, but this is ridiculous!"

Frequent use of "George Bush and John McCain" as a formulation ... tying them together. Al's pretty feisty, and focused on environmental issues.

Like all the other speakers, Gore cannot resist describing McCain as "a friend" and "a good man." Last night, Pat Buchanan was fulminating about how the GOP will never, ever say a nice thing about Obama, and urging the Dems to get as aggressive. Is Buchanan right? Or is the Obama team reading new tea leaves that say personal sniping and bashing is counter-productive?

Gore sounds like he's rushing his speech ... comparing Obama to Lincoln -- Illinois politician, relatively inexperienced, respected for judgment and willingness to speak against the tide (Lincoln on the Mexican War, Obama on Iraq).

Maybe there's a reason. He ended at exactly 8:00 p.m. CDT.

UPDATE, 8:05 p.m. -- Fox has Hannity & Colmes, and they're paying attention to Denver. Cutaway to Michael McDonald. Wow! I love Michael McDonald, but has he had a hit record in the last 20 years? 25? I loved his work with the Doobie Brothers -- he gave the band a whole new sound and probably the biggest hits of its career, but that was all late 1970s. Had some solo hits, too ... I lost track of him around 1983.

He can sing, though. "America the Beautiful." Sweet.

There's an Eisenhower up there .. speaking for Obama. The late President's grand-daughter. Quoting her grandfather, quoting Lincoln. Lincoln is a big theme tonight.

UPDATE, 8:16 p.m. -- David Gergen, charter member of the TOWG Chorus, yakking on CNN about how "the music's great, but I am glad Al Gore and Susan Eisenhower are adding some substance." Gergen agrees with me, though ... Gore was rushed and everyone's evoking Lincoln. OMG, I'm a Tired Old White Guy!!!!!

Ed Rollins now on CNN ... another TOWG.

Jesse Jackson on MSNBC, sounding like a parody of himself. If Obama is elected, what happens to the Jesse Jacksons and Al Sharptons? We all know racial animosity continues to be a thread in the American tapestry, so what will their role be?

Paul Begala: "Susan Eisenhower does not look like someone out of a will.i.am video." Paul's dodging the TOWG bullet so far.

UPDATE: 8:22 p.m. -- The song I liked by Sheryl Crow was "Out Of Our Heads," and the YouTube video is here.

Joe Biden takes the stage at 8:23 CDT. "This is an open convention." (pointing at the sky.)

Fox airs a commercial from John McCain, congratulating Obama on a historic night. Check it out on McCain's website or right here:

Keith Olbermann has Obama's speech, and is praising its directness, its willingness to contrast himself with the GOP, Bush and McCain, and its specificity. 20 minutes to go ...

UPDATE, 8:45 p.m. -- Flipped over to CNN Headline News and Glenn Beck. Who the f**k is Glenn Beck and why does anyone care? He has former Republican hitman, now Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr on. Bob is angry tonight; the Ds and Rs are keeping him out of the debates. Bob wants to talk about HIS issues and wants a "reasonable criteria" for getting into them.

The whole feel of the conversation, when the other cable news networks are focused on Denver, is that Barr (and Beck) are OUT OF IT.

UPDATE, 8:56 p.m. --Dick Durbin introducing Barack Obama. "Four years ago, we couldn't pronounce his name." More comparisons to Lincoln. "Americans hungry for change, wanting a fighting chance." "Life has tested and prepared him to lead this nation."

Video .. David Straithairn narrating? It sounds like his voice .. rich and steady.

Nice piece about his grandparents ... his mom ... meeting Michelle ... his legislative accomplishments ... the girls ... his mom's passing ... tracing deep grooves in the American experience ... Message: he is ONE OF US.

UPDATE, 9:12 p.m. -- Obama strides on stage. Flashbulbs like crazy! Three minutes before he can start speaking. "With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the Presidency of the United States."

Thanks to Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy and Joe Biden. Shout out to Michelle and his daughters.

UPDATE, 9:19 p.m. -- Going after Bush and the "failed politics of Washington."

(Speech text here ... ) "We love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say, 'eight is enough'." 75,000 people chant "eight is enough."

Nice to McCain, but he's voted with GWB 90% of the time. What kind of judgment is that? "I'm not ready to take a 10% chance on change." Drags Phil Gramm's carcass out and waves it for all .. the "nation of whiners" line. Tell that to the auto workers. Tell that to the military families. They're not whiners. They're the Americans I know.

"It's not that John McCain doesn't care; it's that he doesn't get it." "In Washington, they call this 'the ownership society.' What they mean is, 'you're on your own.' It's time for them to own their failure. That's why I'm running for President of the United States."

Evoking the stories of his family and the themes of the American Dream. Shot at McCain and "celebrity."

UPDATE, 9:30 p.m. -- Articulating a vision of government and America. "We are responsible for ourselves, but we rise and fall as one nation. I am my brother's keeper. I am my sister's keeper. "

SPECIFICS:

Tax code changes to deter shipping jobs overseas, incentivize small businesses, cut taxes for 95% of all working families;

energy independence and alternative fuels ("drilling is a stopgap measure, not a longtime solution -- not even close"); re-tool auto industry to build more fuel-efficient cars, renewable energy;

education -- "I will not settle for an America where some kids do not have that chance;" college education for community service;

health care -- stop insurer discrimination against those who need health care the most; paid sick days/family leave;

families -- bankruptcy laws, equal pay for equal work, protect Social Security

budget -- close corpoate loopholes; fine-tooth comb on federal government; no 20th century bureaucracy

national security -- "John McCain likes to say that he'll follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, but he won't even follow him to the cave he lives in." ROAR.

"We need a President who can face the threats of the future, not keep grasping at the ideas of the past."

"I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future. "

New Politics --

Looking into the camera, gesturing for emphasis: "So I've got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first."

"We've lost our sense of common purpose, and that's what we have to restore." Hits the hot buttons ... abortion ... guns ... gays and lesbians ... immigration ...

"Because if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from. You make a big election about small things. And you know what - it's worked before."

"This election has never been about me. It's about you!"

Finale .. reference to MLK and the March on Washington.

OUTRO MUSIC: Country music! Sharp!

UPDATE, 9:58 p.m. -- The outro song is "Only In America" by Brooks and Dunn.

Obama's, Biden's families on stage. How do you confetti and drop balloons in a 75,000-seat stadium?

Think about it: an African American is the nominee of a major political party to be the President of the United States. Wow.

Happy Birthday, LBJ!

Today is former President and legendary Texan Lyndon Johnson's 100th birthday. Growing up in Texas, he was one of my heroes. He was bigger than life and had a charismatic, fascinating history. Besides, his birthday was the same as mine.

I opposed the Vietnam War, but I think even then had some primal loyalty to Johnson as a Texan. In retrospect, I think he was one of the great Presidents of our nation's history, and I still consider myself a fan. I love to go out to the LBJ boyhood home in Johnson City or to the state and national park at the LBJ Ranch. I always try to stop by his grave under the spreading oaks next to the river and pay my respects.

Reason # 2,680 Why I Love Austin

Austin is such a great political town. Last night, I went to an event hosted by former State Senator and LBJ School Dean Max Sherman and his wife Jean. The event was sponsored by a group called Austin Authors-in-House, run by Jan Williams, as a benefit for Texas Impact.

"Let's Talk Politics" was supposed to feature two of the architects of George Bush's (and, oddly enough, Ann Richards') fortunes, Matthew Dowd and Mark McKinnon, in a free-wheeling conversation about the fall elections moderated by Texas Monthly's Paul Burka. Sadly, Dowd was contractually obligated by his new masters at ABC News to sit in a chair and wait for Barack Obama to name his vice presidential candidate, which ABC News apparently thought was going to happen yesterday. It didn't, of course, (I'm still waiting for my text message) and so Dowd was reduced to writing a blog post.

Fortunately, historian and professor Douglas Brinkley was in town and filled in for the absent Dowd. For over an hour and a half, McKinnon and Brinkley shared thoughts, riffed off each other, and answered questions from Burka and the audience. Burka also pitched in his two cents on many subjects, particularly on Texas politics about which he is more informed that either of the others.

If I'm in the mood later, I'll share some of the gems from the evening. Here's a picture of the panel as they were being introduced.

From left: Mark McKinnon, Max Sherman, some guy, Paul Burka, and Doug Brinkley.

Joe Lieberman To Address Convention -- GOP, That Is

The Washington Post is reporting this morning that Joe Lieberman will address the Republican National Convention in two weeks in St. Paul, Minnesota. Lieberman, who until 2006 was a Democratic U.S. Senator from Connecticut, will speak on the opening night of the convention. Says the Post, "His address on the opening night of the convention is intended to signal McCain's independence."

Lieberman was Al Gore's vice presidential candidate in 2000, but over the last years has devolved from independent to annoying to irrelevant in the Democratic Party. He is the Zell Miller of this year's GOP convention, and is being cast in Miller's role -- angry, divisive and in amazing lock-step with the entire GOP/conservative agenda. What independence?

Of course, it's the genius of the modern GOP that it will successfully frame Lieberman's lap-dog relationship with the Bush Agenda as a sign of independence. Lie to the American people about the rationale for invading Iraq? Check. Torture's OK, as long as we're the ones doing it? Check. Tax cuts for the wealthy will eventually close the deficit? Check.

These are the failed policies of the Bush years. McCain once opposed all of them -- unlike John Cornyn, who proudly embraced the Bush nonsense from Day One -- but has now climbed into Bush's lap to solidify the conservative movement's tepid endorsement of him. That's the narrative the Obama campaign must start talking about, and start talking about now.

It's Time For Some Campaignin'!

This is the latest from the nutty geniuses at JibJab. Did they catch the zeitgeist of the election and the essentials of the main characters? You decide. Comments, please.

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Dilettantes on Parade

I was listening to a report from NPR's senior European correspondent Sylvia Poggioli about the G-8 summit meeting in Italy this week, when she threw out an offhand reference to the fact that the White House's official briefing book for the event included a reference to Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as a "political dilettante." It also had this to say about Italy: "a country known for governmental corruption and vice." Not exactly something you'd find in the tourist guides, so I suppose it made sense to put it in a briefing book.

ABC News has the full story here. It sounds like the White House briefing book is being written by Wikipedia.


Berlusconi in pre-dilettante days, on a state visit to Washington in 2003. I forget who the guy on the right is.

Jesse Helms, 1921-2008

Jesse Helms passed away on July 4, 2008. He represented North Carolina in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2003, the longest any Senator from that state has served. He was also an asshole.

Helms deserves respect upon his passing, but he also deserves honesty about his virulent racism, which lasted long past its political shelf life or social acceptability. He was vigorous and unashamed in his defense of segregation and his own personal racism, and age did not give him wisdom.

Like other politicians, he was a master at cloaking his baser motives in high-minded rhetoric. In a 1959 op-ed piece, he wrote, ""Compromise, hell! ... If freedom is right and tyranny is wrong, why should those who believe in freedom treat it as if it were a roll of bologna to be bartered a slice at a time?" Noble sentiments, until you realize that by "tyranny" he meant civil rights laws.

Rest in peace, Senator Helms. If there is a God, I hope He's black.

The Real Deal on the Real ID Act

(Cross-posted at Burnt Orange Report.)

In 2005, Congress passed the REAL ID Act, which (among other provisions) directed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to meet a 2008 year-end deadline for completing 670 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border. The Act also gave DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff broad authority to waive property rights, environmental, labor and other laws in order to get the job done. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene in the case of Defenders of Wildlife vs. Chertoff, in effect legitimizing the huge grants of power given to DHS in the REAL ID Act.

You could spend hours reading up on the REAL ID Act and all its implications -- or you could listen to two very informative news programs on your local community radio station. This week, two of KOOP's public affairs shows will be examining the REAL ID Act and its provisions assaulting the civil liberties of all Americans. The two shows are TEXAS POLITICS TODAY and SHADES OF GREEN.

On TEXAS POLITICS TODAY, airing Wednesday from 2:30 to 3:00 p.m. CDT, Melissa Del Bosque of the Texas Observer, whose coverage of the border wall controversy along the Rio Grande has won national acclaim, will discuss the border wall battle and the Chertoff decision. Melissa's coverage can be viewed here, here and on the Observer’s blog.

(N.B. -- TEXAS POLITICS TODAY is produced and co-hosted by yours truly.)

On SHADES OF GREEN, airing Thursday from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. CDT, a representative of the national Defenders of Wildlife organization will talk about that organization's lawsuit. Sheila Dean, an activist and blogger working on REAL ID issues, will also appear on Thursday's show.

KOOP, "the little station that could," is Austin's only community-owned radio station. It shares the FM 91.7 radio frequency with KVRX, the University of Texas student radio. It also streams live over the Web at http://www.koop.org/. KOOP is on the air on weekdays from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. and on weekends from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.

Is America Ready For The Future?

Tom Friedman's column yesterday in the New York Times sets a somber tone as we head into the Fourth of July. He laments the sad state of American politics, particularly in the light of all the challenges we face as a nation:

My fellow Americans: We are a country in debt and in decline — not terminal, not irreversible, but in decline. Our political system seems incapable of producing long-range answers to big problems or big opportunities. We are the ones who need a better-functioning democracy — more than the Iraqis and Afghans. We are the ones in need of nation-building. It is our political system that is not working.

I continue to be appalled at the gap between what is clearly going to be the next great global industry — renewable energy and clean power — and the inability of Congress and the administration to put in place the bold policies we need to ensure that America leads that industry.

“America and its political leaders, after two decades of failing to come together to solve big problems, seem to have lost faith in their ability to do so,” Wall Street Journal columnist Gerald Seib noted last week. “A political system that expects failure doesn’t try very hard to produce anything else.”

His commentary on the lamentable state of our politics is right on. To take only one example, Congress is dithering on reauthorizing investment tax credits for renewable energy, which most analysts consider vital to expanding that industry, even though the credits have wide bipartisan support:

Even though many business leaders have lobbied Congress to extend the tax credits, Senate Republicans say a larger issue is at stake: the fate of President Bush's first-term tax cuts, due to expire in 2010. Many Republicans want to lock those in, and don't like the precedent of allowing some tax increases to make up for the cuts.

The deadlock has caused some friction between Republicans and traditional business allies. More than 400 companies signed a hastily organized letter to Congress urging passage of the tax incentives. The list included AT&T, General Motors, Bank of America, Time Warner and Archer Daniels Midland, along with Cisco Systems and Oracle.

Other manufacturers are growing impatient.

"The debate in Washington has almost reached a theological level, but we're losing a chance to gain U.S. jobs and leadership in a growing field," Morin of Applied Materials
said.

Or consider the sad case of Senator John Ensign of Nevada, whose state has the highest home foreclosure rate in the nation. He's holding up a homeowners mortgage relief bill that would help thousands of his constituents by insisting that the aforementioned renewable energy tax credits be added on to the bill. Both the homeowners relief bill and the investment tax credits have broad support, but Ensign's idea is a poison pill. The Democratic leadership wants the housing bill to be revenue-neutral -- which it would be but for the $6 billion in tax credits Ensign wants to add on.

Does Ensign know he's playing games? Sure! "I think that's a tough choice for them to make," he said, "and that's why we're trying to push them on it."

Here's Washington D.C. in a nutshell for you: kill a bill that everyone agrees is a great idea by adding to it something that everyone also agrees is a great idea, but which cannot fly because of another idea (revenue-neutrality) that everyone also thinks is a great idea. Only in D.C. could they fu*ck up something this badly.

Rick Perry Celebrates Milestone

The Houston Chronicle notes this morning that Rick Perry has now served the most consecutive days as Governor of Texas in history. (Bill Clements, having served two nonconsecutive four-year terms, still holds the overall longevity record Perry will surpass in December.)

Is Rick Perry better off than he was eight years ago? Certainly. He was then in his second year as Lieutenant Governor, his star hitched to George Bush's acendance to the presidency. Eight years later, he is not hitched to Bush's plummeting popularity and the emerging consensus that history will judge him one of our worst presidents. Perry, by contrast, is mildly popular, although his approval rating will continue to decline. He faces what could be a formidable challenge from Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 Republican primary, although he's stared her down twice before. (I am a member of the "Perry for Republican Nominee in 2010" club, since I happen to believe that a) Texas desperately needs a change of direction at the top and b) Perry will be the easiest Republican to beat.)

Whenever he leaves office, Perry will undoubtedly become a rich man. He's been an effective advocate for all manner of government profiteers, from private prison corporations to Spanish highway construction conglomerates to pharmaceutical companies. He epitomizes, in my opinion, the recessive gene of modern Republicanism's dual fixation on Government As The Enemy and Profit Maximization As The Only Social Value -- government as something to be mocked and ridiculed while feathering your friends nests' with no-bid contracts and thumb-on-the-scale public policy subsidized by taxpayers. In their gentleman's code, the elected officials and bureaucrats who pave the profiteers' way are rewarded with private-sector sinecures in the form of directorships or cushy positions as fixers.

So Rick Perry continues along his path, smarmily criticizing the "waste and inefficiency" of the government that pays $10,000 a month for him to live in a swanky Barton Creek home and biding his time until he cashes in.

Is Texas better off than it was eight years ago? You tell me. Our schools are worse, with the latest financing fix already inadequate and graduation rates declining. Our universities, victims of legislative inattention and malfeasance for a generation, are skyrocketing tuition and fees to make ends meet while Perry readies to do to higher education what No Child Left Behind did to K-12 education. The Texas economy is, Perry says, strong, although that has not translated into a better standard of living for most Texas families. Transportation continues to be a problem: Texas is growing fast and its transportation infrastructure is not keeping pace, in part at least because of Perry's unwillingess to ask Texans to invest in infrastructue improvements. Our prisons are overcrowded and our prison guards underpaid.

Congratulations, Governor. You're doing a heckuva job.