There's an argument to be made that Sly Turner could actually make a great Speaker. He's intelligent, articulate, and effective. As an African American, his ascension as Speaker of the Texas House would rewrite all the history books.
Whether he can ever be Speaker under these circumstances is another question entirely. What's his base? The Craddick Ds? OK, that's about 15 people, a half dozen of whom will be in the race of their lives next spring. The anti-Craddick Ds? Not likely, unless he convinces them that it's possible for a Democrat to be Speaker, but only if he's the candidate. The Craddick loyalists? He has to convince them of a slightly different proposition: that a Democrat is likely, even inevitable, to become Speaker and their best hope of power-sharing lies in a "moderate" like himself.
No one would have guessed, at this point in 2005, that the Republicans would lose six seats before the next session began. While it's too early to chart all the dynamics of the 2008 House elections, Democrats certainly have reason to hope they'll pick up more seats -- maybe even a majority (especially after Craddick's performance over the weekend, which will be replayed in countless campaign ads and YouTube excerpts over the next 18 months).
Will the next Speaker be a Republican or a Democrat, and how will Sly Turner fit into that calculus? It'll be interesting to watch.
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