Ed Sills On The Election

Ed Sills is a good friend who covered Texas politics for the San Antonio Express-News before becoming communications director for the Texas AFL-CIO in the mid-1990s. He's an astute observer of Texas politics. He's written an interesting essay laying out his optimism about next Tuesday. Here it is, reprinted in full:

If It Looks, Acts and Quacks Like a Big Turnout…
I dislike polls, not pollsters. Pollsters are great folks, usually smart and often brilliant. But the best of them will tell you that even if they are absolutely scrupulous in all their endeavors, accuracy depends on the turnout models they choose to employ and the vagaries of the human condition.
Sure, pollsters will have the right results, on average, but so will anyone who observes politics carefully, studies districts and makes note of trends. The monkeys trying to type Shakespeare will be right half the time, too. Most national polls now show Barack Obama winning the presidency – a stable prediction for the last few weeks – but the results range from well within the margin of error to well into the double digits. In 2008, polling remains an inexact science and anyone who relies to a moral certainty on the polls deserves the results when they don’t pan out.
Early vote totals, however, are not a poll. In pivotal state after pivotal state, Democrats are turning out early in larger numbers than Republicans, and those votes are in the bank going into Tuesday’s elections. I am a big fan of Ockham’s Razor when it comes to political observation; you don’t make things more complicated than necessary when trying to figure out what is happening. Voters from the two major parties don’t “take turns” to the degree that GOP scenarios for national victory suggest. More likely, we have seen most of the eager partisans from both sides cast ballots so far and we will see traditionalists who like to vote on Election Day and those who were undecided on one or more races go to the polls on Tuesday.
I’m no non-partisan – we should all be hopeless romantics when it comes to big elections -- and recognize that sometimes hopes and wishes overtake the data for anyone rooting for a candidate. For that reason, I will stay out of the business of predicting a winner in any specific race in this forum, except to say this: We are probably in for some shockeroos next Tuesday.
Here are a few observations that don’t touch on the actual likelihood of any one candidate’s victory:
1) Tuesday will be a late night in the presidential contest and many Texas races – not necessarily because the results will be in doubt but because at least in urban and suburban areas the lines are going to be so long that polls won’t actually close until well after the official 7 p.m. deadline, when anyone in line still gets to vote;
2) The early vote turnout in the top 15 counties is up 50 percent from 2004 and, based on anecdotal evidence of huge turnouts today, looks like it might end up close to half of the 7.4 million Texans who voted in the entire 2004 election. Can that pace keep up? Almost certainly not, because early voting has accelerated in popularity every election. Shaving off fractions, in 1996 the early vote in the top 15 counties was 16 percent of the overall total; in 2000, it was 24 percent; in 2004, it was 32 percent. If that pattern follows and early voting in those counties becomes 40 percent this year, it would not be a shocker. Do the math: If 3.7 million is 40 percent of the vote total, we could be looking at a total Texas turnout of 9.25 million, or 68.5 percent, meaning the winner of the presidential contest will almost certainly have to break George W. Bush’s vote-harvesting record of 4.52 million in 2004 just to get the victory. Needless to say, the turnout could end differently if these assumptions are wrong, but my gut says to take the “high” over the “low” bet on this one. At the levels of turnout we have seen in early voting (which confirm the big turnout in the primary elections), surprises become possible throughout Texas. The voter suppression programs simply aren’t working in 2008;
3) African-American turnout in Texas will set all sorts of records and sway the results in Harris County. Participation levels among African-Americans have been good to bordering on excellent around the state in recent elections, and Obama’s candidacy is producing a blowout turnout across the nation in this demographic. Earlier today in Georgia, hours’ worth of lines were extending out the door in minority precincts, where nearly half the electorate had already voted going into today and 35 percent of that vote was estimated to be African-American, compared to 25 percent in the 2004 election. Harris County, where one-third of all voters had cast ballots going into today, has trounced its past early voting performance. The improvement in Harris County’s early vote this year over 2004 is second only to Fort Bend County, and the makeup of the turnout has prompted long-time observers to posit significant advantages to date among Democratic primary voters. It’s not a stretch to suggest that a big chunk of this improvement in performance comes from African-American voters who are overwhelmingly favoring Obama and other Democrats. And Harris County will cast, by far, more ballots than any other county in Texas.
4) Hispanic turnout is not as low as the early-vote comparisons might indicate. While the raw early vote totals in Cameron, El Paso, Hidalgo and Nueces counties lag the other 11 biggest counties, voters in those counties, too, are casting early ballots at a record pace. Nueces and Hidalgo counties are each more than 40 percent above their early-vote totals for 2004. In the end, the Hispanic vote will be a bigger factor than ever;
5) Barring a calamity between now and Tuesday, this will be the first election since 1992 in which dire economic straits will be the clear No. 1 issue at the polls, with everything else a distant second. Yesterday’s report that a major measure of American productivity actually went down over the last three months couples with the continued fallout over the collapse of financial institutions and growing numbers of layoffs. As the price of oil sinks, Texans are slowly realizing -- but maybe not realizing fully by Election Day – that we are not immune to the downturn. John McCain was onto something when he elevated Joe the Plumber, country singer, to mythic levels. (My suggestion for Joe’s first single: “I’m Always on a Train Out of Town”). Unfortunately for McCain, Obama has fully anticipated the significance of economic issues to this election for the last two years;
6) I can’t speak for Republicans, but my hunch is that the GOP weekend turnout program is in place, ready to go and will succeed at reaching the Republican base. I can’t speak for Democrats, either, but the single-mindedness of this year’s get-out-the-vote operations is unprecedented. For the first time since the days of Jimmy Carter, the Democratic presidential nominee has played a major role and has spent money to organize new voters. The giant turnout in March, aided by both the Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns, was no accident, and everyone didn’t just forget about it afterward and go home, as county conventions strained building capacities and voters carried their newfound activism into the summer and fall. Texas is Texas, but Democrats have a chance to demonstrate how relativity works on turnout numbers;
7) Though the buzzards have not yet gotten within pecking distance, signs of defeat for McCain in the conservative media are not hard to find. George Will, Peggy Noonan and other reliable Republicans jumped ship weeks ago. Wall Street Journal columnist Kimberley Strassel, not a liberal by any stretch, today wrote: “All eyes are on Tuesday. For the GOP, the real question is Wednesday. That’s the day the party will survey the damage of the 2008 election, and have to decide what it wants to be….” When discussion on the right of whether Sarah Palin is the one for 2012 overwhelms whether McCain is the one for 2008, you know the Republican tea leaves are set to “ghastly”. That said, the narrowing in some polls, the long-simmering thirst in the Democratic Party and the possibility that the GOP is playing possum all but promise an all-out effort through the last minutes of voting on Tuesday. My side has seen enough false omens to create a new art form in the field of divination;
8) At what level can a national trend penetrate Texas, which is in the top five Republican performers of the last 15 years? Sen. John Cornyn clearly thinks he has the win in the bag, because he has never gone negative and that is contrary to his history as a campaigner. Rep. Rick Noriega, Cornyn’s challenger, had no money for the kind of air blitz Cornyn has bought, but then again, he hasn’t spent TV time wandering like a hermit near canyons, among cow patties and out of Shepler’s. Look at the front page of Cornyn’s web site. It’s the incumbent dressed like a cowboy hanging with horses. I like most cowboys and all horses, but in a campaign that has the run of the mass media, the aversion in ad after ad to placing the senator with other people ought to be raising eyebrows. Noriega, for his part, has dramatically improved his ability to connect with people throughout the campaign, though he didn’t have the means to connect with 13.5 million of them;
9) In the aggregate, the Texas House situation is as well studied as any in recent years. The Democrats have six or so especially difficult seats to defend, but also have potential pickups in many more seats. Everyone is looking at the same 20 to 30 contests. If 2008 is like most elections, Texans will pick and choose and the partisan breakdown may be subject to rolls of the statistical dice in more than one election. If this election is like, say, the 1994 one because of the character of the turnout, however, Republicans may be sitting around wondering where it all fell apart (just as Democrats did when Jack Brooks, Carl Parker and a host of others bit the dust in my first headachy election as a union communicator);
10) This is a historic year. Really. The upset nomination and ascension to the “favorite” position of Obama has made a deep mark on American politics, however 2008 ends. (And, based on the playing field of the final weeks – dominated by Bush states like North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Indiana, segueing into states like Georgia and Arizona – it has the appearance of ending well for Obama.) The trials and tribulations of the economy are reaching historic levels and the international situation is perilous. The next president will almost certainly face the ancient curse of living in interesting times. How historic the election will be in Texas depends, as always, on the turnout. If the magnetic draw of the choices in this election accelerates demographic trends already in place, Tuesday’s election in Texas will be closely analyzed for many years to come.

Go With God, Fred Baron

Fred Baron passed away this afternoon at the age of 61 of, according to the Dallas Morning News, "complications of cancer."

There is some bitter irony in that, for Fred spent most of his adult life helping people deal with those "complications." Fred built his law practice fighting "toxic torts" -- a term that did not exist when he started representing workers from shipyards, petrochemical facilities and chemical plants who'd contracted asbestosis and other diseases. He discovered that those industries knew of the dangers of the carcinogens they used -- in some cases for many years. He helped the law to evolve, forcing courts to recognize and compensate for new dangers and new injuries, and paving the way for the society-wide attack on asbestos poisoning we've seen in the last 20 years. He was one of the best trial lawyers, ever.

In the spring of 1986, after my first year of law school, I was recruited to be a summer intern in Fred's Dallas office. They flew me up there and I spent a day with Fred and some of the other lawyers. Fred was the lawyer I wanted to be: smart, passionate about the law, ambitious to succeed for his clients, but charming and funny even under pressure. In the end, I turned down the internship and spent the summer with a law firm I already knew in San Antonio. I've wondered more than once how different my life might have been had I accepted the offer.

Over the years we stayed in touch. As his practice grew, so did his horizons. He rose in the ranks of the trial bar, eventually becoming the President of the American Association for Justice. He also became a significant contributor to Democratic candidates and causes. I was working for Governor Ann Richards and, later, Senator Rodney Ellis, and Fred was a loyal friend to both of them.

By the early 2000s, he'd move beyond his law practice and devoted more of his prodigious energies to progressive politics. He was the principal fundraiser for John Edwards in 2004, and then in the Kerry-Edwards campaign. He also was campaign chair for Edwards' 2008 presidential run. But that was the tip of the iceberg. He made enormous contributions to the Texas Democratic Trust, which funded party-building efforts here in Texas and helped turn the Democratic Party around.

His generosity was not limited to the Democrats. He also gave generously of his time and resources to progressive causes. While I ran the Southwest region office of People for the American Way, Fred was a constant source of strategic counsel and enthusiastic support for our efforts to build a grassroots activist network here. He and Lisa hosted a fundraiser for PFAW at their Dallas home featuring Alec Baldwin.

Fred and Lisa were enthusiastic members of the philanthropic community. When we scheduled the event with Alec Baldwin, we had to try for several dates. The symphony was having a benefit at the house this night, we were told. The homeless shelter was having an event this other night, we found out. It was amazing.

My condolences to Lisa and her family. Fred will be missed by all of us.

Opie And The Fonz Come Out For Obama

Ron Howard, Andy Griffith and Henry Winkler reprise their characters to encourage Americans to vote for Barack Obama. Way cool!

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

Does Austin Have A Cool Mayor, Or What?

Austin Mayor Will Wynn shakes his groove thing.

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Report: Sarah Palin Acted Improperly, Illegally

(Cross-posted at Burnt Orange Report.)

The Washington Post, among others, is reporting that Sarah Palin acted, at best, improperly and, at worst, illegally in pressuring Walt Monegan to fire her sister's former husband, an Alaska state trooper.

A 263- page report released yesterday by the Alaska Joint Legislative Council found that, while Palin had legal authority to fire Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan,

his dismissal came in part because he refused to remove her sister's ex-husband from the Alaska State Troopers.
Investigator Stephen Branchflower found evidence that Palin actively joined her husband, Todd, in pursuing a personal vendetta against the trooper and that she used state employees to try to settle a score in a bitter family feud.

The Joint Legislative Council is a bipartisan group of legislative leaders that acts on state issues during periods when the Alaska Legislature is not in session, much like our Legislative Budget Board. They hired investigator Stephen Branchflower (no relation to Ben's Longbranch Barbecue) to conduct the investigation. According to the Post,

Branchflower found evidence that Palin actively joined her husband, Todd, in pursuing a personal vendetta against the trooper and that she used state employees to try to settle a score in a bitter family feud.
"Governor Palin knowingly permitted a situation to continue where impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda, to wit: To get Trooper Michael Wooten fired."

I've read large chunks of the report, which can be found here. The impression I'm left with can best be summed up in the phrase former faith-based initiatives czar John DiIulio used to describe the Bush-Cheney-Rove White House: Mayberry Machiavellis. The picture of Sarah and "First Dude" Todd Palin that comes acoss is petty, vindictive, and not even remotely presidential.

Finally! The Invite I've Been Waiting For

I just received -- I am not making this up -- an invite from Texas Democratic Party chair Boyd Richie to attend the invitation-only debate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on February 21, 2008. Actually, I am not invited to the event; I am invited to participate in a drawing where I might get a ticket to the event. But I will enter the drawing and cross my fingers that I get selected.

The fact that the debate occurred almost eight months ago is not sapping my enthusiasm at all.




Dear fellow Democrat,
Democrats all across Texas are excited about the upcoming historic debate between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton. At a time when so many people have lost faith in our government thanks to the failed Republican policies of the Bush administration, our two outstanding candidates are ready to provide the change that Texas and America desperately need.
While seating at the debate is limited, the TDP has secured 100 debate tickets, which will be made available to the general public through a random drawing. The tickets will be evenly distributed between supporters of Senator Clinton and Senator Obama, with some tickets going to undecided voters.
In order to be eligible for tickets, you must be a registered voter in the State of Texas. Names may be submitted for the drawing until 5pm on Monday, February 18th. Winners will be notified the next morning, and subject to the security requirements of the debate venue.

Second Debate: Behind the Post-Debate Numbers

Last night, John McCain and Barack Obama met in Nashville for the second of their three debates, the "town hall" debate. A poll taken immediately after the debate by CBS and Knowledge Networks shows that undecided voters believe Obama "won" the debate, with 40% saying Obama did better and 26% saying McCain did. That, of course, was the one-liner that folks got about CBS's research effort.

But reading the poll results themselves was, to me, enlightening. CBS did before-and-after questions of 516 undecided voters. One question was whether the voters thought Obama "would make the right decisions about the economy." Before the debate, 55% thought Obama would make the rights decisions; afterwards, that number climbed to 68% -- 20 points higher than McCain's post-debate number.

On the question whether "he understand voters' needs and problems," the Obama-McCain contrast numbers soared from 59%-33% pre-debate to 80%-44% post-debate. Think of that bottom line: almost twice as many undecided voters think Obama "gets" them as think McCain does.

The McCain attack since this summer has been the Barack Obama is "not one of us" -- that he's exotic and unusual; inexperienced and unprepared. These numbers show that the McCain meme is not working.

President Palin? 1-in-7 Odds

Say what you will about Sarah Palin's performance in the vice-presidential debate last night. She did better than I expected. Of course, I expected her to spit up on herself, doggone it. She was evasive, uninformed, and out of her depth, but blustered through what had to be a terrifying evening for her.

The bottom line, though, is that she showed none of the gravitas we expect in our top-tier national leaders. She was cute and folksy, but persuaded few people she's ready to take the 3:00 a.m. phone call.

Her partisans argue, of course, that it doesn't matter. She's auditioning for the job of Vice President, after all, and the level of scrutiny does not have to be as high as with the presidency. That may be true, but not with the oldest person ever to run for a first term as president on her ticket.

Here's something interesting: according to the Social Security Administration's actuarial tables, the changes that John McCain will die during his first term in office are 1-in-7. That's the odds that your birthday this year will be on a Friday.

Feeling better about Palin?

Sarah Palin and the Bush Doctrine

I saw this quote in John Cole's Balloon Juice blog and had to share:

And Sarah Palin is the distilled essence of wingnut. She has it all. She is dishonest. She is a religious nut. She is incurious. She is anti-science. She is inexperienced. She abuses her authority. She hides behind executive privilege. She is a big spender. She works from the gut and places a greater value on instinct than knowledge.

Pretty good summary, eh?

You Know You're In Trouble When ...

... you're the vice-presidential candidate for the Republican Party, with a strong record of family values rhetoric and related moral superiority, and you have to announce that your 17-year old daughter is unmarried and pregnant.

You know you're REALLY in trouble when you have to make the announcement in order to rebut rumors that you already covered for her by pretending to have delivered a child in April because THAT child was hers.

McCain Introduces Palin

Watching John McCain introduce Sarah Palin. It turns out today is his 72nd birthday and her and her husband's 20th anniversary.
Audience applauds when he says something about sports ... apropos of nothing.
She speaks. Awful voice.
Five kids, including a son who's in the Army.
Telling her story. It's inspiring, but not at a national level. She's not running for Congress, for chrissakes.
Lots about ethics and corruption and integrity. She's on the wrong team and doesn't know it.
"Nobody more committed to change in American than John McCain?" Ex-squeeze me? It sounds like they are in denial.
Finally talks about McCain's toughness. Finally, an actual attempt to draw a distinction, not just gloss over their own record.
It sounds like she wrote her own speech, the kind the mayor of a town gives when he or she is introducing the candidate. Did the campaign even see this, much less write it?
"Nu-ku-lar" -- it's like a genetic aberration in the GOP.
She leads her own clapping, like she's the head cheerleader.
Reference to women's suffrage -- did the Republicans oppose it then?
Pays tribute to Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton, tries to put on their mantle.
If I'm a red-meat Republican in the audience or listening in on TV, my head must be ready to explode. She's bragged about being a union member, about having women on the ticket, etc.
Clearly appealing to women to abandon Obama and go with McCain.
"Thank you, and I God Bless America."

Overall impression: LIGHTWEIGHT.

Sarah Palin To Be McCain's Running Mate

The Washington Post and the Burnt Orange Report -- two of the most trusted names in political journalism -- are reporting that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will be introduced later this morning as John McCain's running mate. Chris Cillizza thinks Palin, although she is anti-choice, will give disaffected women an alternative to Obama and let the PUMAs vent their anger by voting Republican in the most important election of their lifetimes. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Matt Glazer thinks Palin ends Republican ability to talk about Obama's inexperience and opens new vistas of Republican corruption for public inspection.

In 1984, when Walter Mondale selected Geraldine Ferraro to be his running mate in a battle against Ronald Reagan, there were a lot of platitudes about the gesture to women, but ultimately her selection was viewed as a stunt, a "Hail Mary" to try and shake up the dynamics of the election. Is this the same?

I imagine we'll hear a lot about the "culture of corruption" in Alaska GOP politics. I also imagine we'll hear a lot about the enormous subsidy that the people of the United States pay to Alaska. "Hey, hard-working single mother in Ohio, how do you like that we export a ton of your taxes to Alaska every year?"

"Knock, Knock" "Who's There?" "Gustav"

Hurricane Gustav now looks to be on a path to a) grow stronger and b) hit the U.S. Gulf Coast somewhere near New Orleans within the next few days. Check out the map:

Post-Denver Thoughts

I blogged about Barack Obama's terrific acceptance speech last night. Now, some concluding thoughts on this historic Democratic National Convention.

First of all, we should not forget how amazing the fact that Obama is the nominee is. Most people who will read this in an era when civil rights for blacks, while not perfectly realized (even today!), were established national policy. Most people in my generation grew up in world where no one thought a black person would be President in our lifetime. Yet, here we are. I'm very proud of how far the country has come in your lifetime.

Obama needed to do three things in his speech:

1. introduce himself and share his story for people who were paying attention for the first time;
2. set out some specifics of his agenda, partly because that's his job and partly to answer critics who say he's just oratory; and
3. show Democrats he can throw a punch.

I thought he did all three. Years from now, lines from the speech will be quoted as examples of great oratory.

The Republicans, who used to be masters of the staging and dramatics of political events, have nothing to compare with this. It's like we just saw a movie with DeNiro and Hoffman and Streep and Swank and they're doing a remake with Sandler and Van Damme. (Apologies to those who think Adam Sandler is the greatest actor of his generation, but I have a news flash: he's not.)
So their convention will seem dull by comparison, and it will be. Apparently their spin is that they WANT IT THAT WAY. Yeah, right ....

The Democrats should be as united as they can get. It's time for them to roll up their sleeves and bring the same passion, tireless effort and desire for change to the general election that they showed in the primaries.

Liveblogging Thursday night

I'm going to live-blog the events in Denver tonight, with my TV mostly on MSNBC but also watching CNN and Fox.

6:30 -- will.i.am and john legend singing "Yes We Can." They sound wonderful. Their backing band is tight. They're trying to get the crowd to sing along, but either the TV mikes cannot pick up the singing or no one in Mile-High Stadium ever heard the song before. I think the latter is unlikely.

7:00 -- Sheryl Crow just finished her set. Man, she looks great. She sang some of her old classics, all with a message buried in the song or chorus:

"A change will do you good ... "

She also sang a cool song that had something about "out of your head and into your heart ... " Time for research.

Watching her, I am struck by how much the Tired Old White Guy (TOWG) chorus must hate all this. Buchanan, O'Reilly, Bill Bennett (I thought he was in jail), etc. -- they trash-talk Obama and the Democrats all they can, but underneath it all is a sense of being OUT OF IT.

UPDATE, 7:35 p.m.: Stevie Wonder on stage now. He sat there quietly for a minute or so, then said, "I love you," and the place erupted. Both CNN and MSNBC have cut away for him, although Fox is showing the O'Reilly show. O'Reilly is promising a new SERIES on how bad Barack Obama is, to debut on Fox on September 8. Really, O'Reilly?

UPDATE, 7:40 p.m.: Stevie Wonder singing "Signed, Sealed, Delivered." Wolf Blitzer and Donna Brazile dancing on CNN. No such luck with Chris Matthews and Norah O'Donnell, or the new kid on the block, Savannah Guthrie.

Meanwhile, on Fox, the TOWG chorus drones on -- O'Reilly interviewing Dark Prince Karl Rove. Obama's got problems, they intone, as 85,000 people dance to Stevie Wonder. Yutzes.

UPDATE, 7:45 p.m. -- Al Gore speaking.

"John McCain has promised to use the sam policies Bush did. Hey, I believe in recycling, but this is ridiculous!"

Frequent use of "George Bush and John McCain" as a formulation ... tying them together. Al's pretty feisty, and focused on environmental issues.

Like all the other speakers, Gore cannot resist describing McCain as "a friend" and "a good man." Last night, Pat Buchanan was fulminating about how the GOP will never, ever say a nice thing about Obama, and urging the Dems to get as aggressive. Is Buchanan right? Or is the Obama team reading new tea leaves that say personal sniping and bashing is counter-productive?

Gore sounds like he's rushing his speech ... comparing Obama to Lincoln -- Illinois politician, relatively inexperienced, respected for judgment and willingness to speak against the tide (Lincoln on the Mexican War, Obama on Iraq).

Maybe there's a reason. He ended at exactly 8:00 p.m. CDT.

UPDATE, 8:05 p.m. -- Fox has Hannity & Colmes, and they're paying attention to Denver. Cutaway to Michael McDonald. Wow! I love Michael McDonald, but has he had a hit record in the last 20 years? 25? I loved his work with the Doobie Brothers -- he gave the band a whole new sound and probably the biggest hits of its career, but that was all late 1970s. Had some solo hits, too ... I lost track of him around 1983.

He can sing, though. "America the Beautiful." Sweet.

There's an Eisenhower up there .. speaking for Obama. The late President's grand-daughter. Quoting her grandfather, quoting Lincoln. Lincoln is a big theme tonight.

UPDATE, 8:16 p.m. -- David Gergen, charter member of the TOWG Chorus, yakking on CNN about how "the music's great, but I am glad Al Gore and Susan Eisenhower are adding some substance." Gergen agrees with me, though ... Gore was rushed and everyone's evoking Lincoln. OMG, I'm a Tired Old White Guy!!!!!

Ed Rollins now on CNN ... another TOWG.

Jesse Jackson on MSNBC, sounding like a parody of himself. If Obama is elected, what happens to the Jesse Jacksons and Al Sharptons? We all know racial animosity continues to be a thread in the American tapestry, so what will their role be?

Paul Begala: "Susan Eisenhower does not look like someone out of a will.i.am video." Paul's dodging the TOWG bullet so far.

UPDATE: 8:22 p.m. -- The song I liked by Sheryl Crow was "Out Of Our Heads," and the YouTube video is here.

Joe Biden takes the stage at 8:23 CDT. "This is an open convention." (pointing at the sky.)

Fox airs a commercial from John McCain, congratulating Obama on a historic night. Check it out on McCain's website or right here:

Keith Olbermann has Obama's speech, and is praising its directness, its willingness to contrast himself with the GOP, Bush and McCain, and its specificity. 20 minutes to go ...

UPDATE, 8:45 p.m. -- Flipped over to CNN Headline News and Glenn Beck. Who the f**k is Glenn Beck and why does anyone care? He has former Republican hitman, now Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr on. Bob is angry tonight; the Ds and Rs are keeping him out of the debates. Bob wants to talk about HIS issues and wants a "reasonable criteria" for getting into them.

The whole feel of the conversation, when the other cable news networks are focused on Denver, is that Barr (and Beck) are OUT OF IT.

UPDATE, 8:56 p.m. --Dick Durbin introducing Barack Obama. "Four years ago, we couldn't pronounce his name." More comparisons to Lincoln. "Americans hungry for change, wanting a fighting chance." "Life has tested and prepared him to lead this nation."

Video .. David Straithairn narrating? It sounds like his voice .. rich and steady.

Nice piece about his grandparents ... his mom ... meeting Michelle ... his legislative accomplishments ... the girls ... his mom's passing ... tracing deep grooves in the American experience ... Message: he is ONE OF US.

UPDATE, 9:12 p.m. -- Obama strides on stage. Flashbulbs like crazy! Three minutes before he can start speaking. "With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the Presidency of the United States."

Thanks to Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy and Joe Biden. Shout out to Michelle and his daughters.

UPDATE, 9:19 p.m. -- Going after Bush and the "failed politics of Washington."

(Speech text here ... ) "We love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say, 'eight is enough'." 75,000 people chant "eight is enough."

Nice to McCain, but he's voted with GWB 90% of the time. What kind of judgment is that? "I'm not ready to take a 10% chance on change." Drags Phil Gramm's carcass out and waves it for all .. the "nation of whiners" line. Tell that to the auto workers. Tell that to the military families. They're not whiners. They're the Americans I know.

"It's not that John McCain doesn't care; it's that he doesn't get it." "In Washington, they call this 'the ownership society.' What they mean is, 'you're on your own.' It's time for them to own their failure. That's why I'm running for President of the United States."

Evoking the stories of his family and the themes of the American Dream. Shot at McCain and "celebrity."

UPDATE, 9:30 p.m. -- Articulating a vision of government and America. "We are responsible for ourselves, but we rise and fall as one nation. I am my brother's keeper. I am my sister's keeper. "

SPECIFICS:

Tax code changes to deter shipping jobs overseas, incentivize small businesses, cut taxes for 95% of all working families;

energy independence and alternative fuels ("drilling is a stopgap measure, not a longtime solution -- not even close"); re-tool auto industry to build more fuel-efficient cars, renewable energy;

education -- "I will not settle for an America where some kids do not have that chance;" college education for community service;

health care -- stop insurer discrimination against those who need health care the most; paid sick days/family leave;

families -- bankruptcy laws, equal pay for equal work, protect Social Security

budget -- close corpoate loopholes; fine-tooth comb on federal government; no 20th century bureaucracy

national security -- "John McCain likes to say that he'll follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, but he won't even follow him to the cave he lives in." ROAR.

"We need a President who can face the threats of the future, not keep grasping at the ideas of the past."

"I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future. "

New Politics --

Looking into the camera, gesturing for emphasis: "So I've got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first."

"We've lost our sense of common purpose, and that's what we have to restore." Hits the hot buttons ... abortion ... guns ... gays and lesbians ... immigration ...

"Because if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from. You make a big election about small things. And you know what - it's worked before."

"This election has never been about me. It's about you!"

Finale .. reference to MLK and the March on Washington.

OUTRO MUSIC: Country music! Sharp!

UPDATE, 9:58 p.m. -- The outro song is "Only In America" by Brooks and Dunn.

Obama's, Biden's families on stage. How do you confetti and drop balloons in a 75,000-seat stadium?

Think about it: an African American is the nominee of a major political party to be the President of the United States. Wow.

Partying with the Johnsons

Last night, the LBJ Foundation celebrated President Johnson's 100th birthday with a big barbecue on the ground of the LBJ Presidential Library at the University of Texas. Thousands of Texans ate Rudy's Barbecue, sipped iced tea and savored ice cream for dessert -- although, unfortunately, the ice cream had run out by the time I got there. Still, it was nice to see all the people there.





As dusk fell over Austin, the U.T. Tower lit up with "100" in a tribute to the lifelong Texan and former 36th President.





In the gathering dusk, the LBJ Library and the beautiful fountain in front of it looked lovely.

Happy Birthday, LBJ!

Today is former President and legendary Texan Lyndon Johnson's 100th birthday. Growing up in Texas, he was one of my heroes. He was bigger than life and had a charismatic, fascinating history. Besides, his birthday was the same as mine.

I opposed the Vietnam War, but I think even then had some primal loyalty to Johnson as a Texan. In retrospect, I think he was one of the great Presidents of our nation's history, and I still consider myself a fan. I love to go out to the LBJ boyhood home in Johnson City or to the state and national park at the LBJ Ranch. I always try to stop by his grave under the spreading oaks next to the river and pay my respects.

"American Prayer"

Explanation from The Huffington Post:

A new celeb-filled pro-Obama video is going viral. Titled "American Prayer," the song features lyrics by British artist Dave Stewart and features a slew of actors and
musicians, including Jason Alexander, Forest Whitaker, Macy Gray, Whoopi Goldberg, Joan Baez. Even Pamela Anderson and Perez Hilton make cameos.

Reason # 2,680 Why I Love Austin

Austin is such a great political town. Last night, I went to an event hosted by former State Senator and LBJ School Dean Max Sherman and his wife Jean. The event was sponsored by a group called Austin Authors-in-House, run by Jan Williams, as a benefit for Texas Impact.

"Let's Talk Politics" was supposed to feature two of the architects of George Bush's (and, oddly enough, Ann Richards') fortunes, Matthew Dowd and Mark McKinnon, in a free-wheeling conversation about the fall elections moderated by Texas Monthly's Paul Burka. Sadly, Dowd was contractually obligated by his new masters at ABC News to sit in a chair and wait for Barack Obama to name his vice presidential candidate, which ABC News apparently thought was going to happen yesterday. It didn't, of course, (I'm still waiting for my text message) and so Dowd was reduced to writing a blog post.

Fortunately, historian and professor Douglas Brinkley was in town and filled in for the absent Dowd. For over an hour and a half, McKinnon and Brinkley shared thoughts, riffed off each other, and answered questions from Burka and the audience. Burka also pitched in his two cents on many subjects, particularly on Texas politics about which he is more informed that either of the others.

If I'm in the mood later, I'll share some of the gems from the evening. Here's a picture of the panel as they were being introduced.

From left: Mark McKinnon, Max Sherman, some guy, Paul Burka, and Doug Brinkley.

Joe Lieberman To Address Convention -- GOP, That Is

The Washington Post is reporting this morning that Joe Lieberman will address the Republican National Convention in two weeks in St. Paul, Minnesota. Lieberman, who until 2006 was a Democratic U.S. Senator from Connecticut, will speak on the opening night of the convention. Says the Post, "His address on the opening night of the convention is intended to signal McCain's independence."

Lieberman was Al Gore's vice presidential candidate in 2000, but over the last years has devolved from independent to annoying to irrelevant in the Democratic Party. He is the Zell Miller of this year's GOP convention, and is being cast in Miller's role -- angry, divisive and in amazing lock-step with the entire GOP/conservative agenda. What independence?

Of course, it's the genius of the modern GOP that it will successfully frame Lieberman's lap-dog relationship with the Bush Agenda as a sign of independence. Lie to the American people about the rationale for invading Iraq? Check. Torture's OK, as long as we're the ones doing it? Check. Tax cuts for the wealthy will eventually close the deficit? Check.

These are the failed policies of the Bush years. McCain once opposed all of them -- unlike John Cornyn, who proudly embraced the Bush nonsense from Day One -- but has now climbed into Bush's lap to solidify the conservative movement's tepid endorsement of him. That's the narrative the Obama campaign must start talking about, and start talking about now.

Thomas Frank on "The Wrecking Crew"

Four years ago, Thomas Frank wrote what many thought was the definitive book capturing the zeitgeist of George W. Bush' first term and the 2004 election. What's The Matter With Kansas? was part travelogue, part small-town journalism, part Big Picture politics. Frank traveled around his home state of Kansas, seeking an answer to the question: How have Republicans mastered the art of getting people to vote against their own interests? He examines the ability of the conservative movement and its embodiment, the modern Republican Party, to get voters focused on cultural issues to the exclusion of all else in their electoral decision making. He reports on how the Democratic Party has too often played into the conservatives' game. And he takes an elegiac look at the damage that a generation of conservative, free-market policy have wreaked on his homeland.

Appearing at Book People tonight, Frank said that the goal of his new book, The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Rule, was to examine what happened when these same masters of campaigning try their hand at governing. The result, he says, is a disaster.

The conservative mindset, he says, glorifies the so-called "free market," arguing (with little evidence) that it is, in every case, superior to government at performing any function or addressing any ill. The laws of the free market are universal, resolute and ultimately beneficent. Government, in this worldview, hinders the efficient operation of free markets, sabotages the common weal, and creates its own constituencies determined to continue and even expand its reach.

It is to this life-and-death struggle against government and its apologists that the conservative movement -- which he calls "the organic embodiment of the American business community" -- has dedicated itself. In his presentation tonight, he quoted from his book the words of one Homer Ferguson, a president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in 1928:

The best public servant is the worst one. A thoroughly first-rate man in public service is corrosive. He eats holes in our liberties. The better he is and the longer he stays the greater the danger. If he is an enthusiast -- a bright-eyed madman who is frantic to make this the finest government in the world -- the black plague is a housepet by comparison.

Frank quoted Grover Norquist -- whom he called the "most brilliant political mind of the conservative movement," lamenting that liberals had no one of his caliber -- in 1984 urging conservatives to follow Josef Stalin's model in consolidating their hold on the apparatus of government. Norquist, of course, has famously said he wants to shrink government down to the size where he could "drown it in the bathtub."

What are the consequences of this approach? As Frank says in the book, "the chief consequence of conservatives' unrelenting faith in the badness of government is ... bad government." This is the end-product of the conservative ideology about government. And Frank took it a step further: for conservatives, bad government is an okay outcome. Why?

First, conservatives see, and definitely market, themselves as outsiders: they're never "in charge" and thus responsible for government's failings. If, as happened with Reagan in the 1980s and Bush in the 2000s, a conservative governing class screws up, that's because they're "impostors," not true to conservative ideals. REAL conservatives would have avoided those mistakes, they argue.

Second, public perception of government inefficiency paves they way for the preferred conservative solution to everything: out-sourcing. Out-sourcing allows the conservatives to boast of their "shrinking government" accomplishments (the Bush Administration proudly notes that the number of federal employees is at the lowest level since the 1950s) while the budget bloats up like a Macy's Thanksgiving parade balloon. More importantly, out-sourcing rewards the people who fund the conservative movement by giving them lucrative government contracts, often based less on competence or even low-bidding than on ideological and political loyalty to the movement.

Third, bad government feeds cynicism about government, and about civic engagement in general. This serves conservative ends: the less you're paying attention or the less you think you can do to change what's going on, the better off they are.

Frank's thesis is compelling, and his speech at Book People laid out his argument well. He spoke for about 35 minutes, then took about 20 minutes of Q&A.

The Wrecking Crew researches and lays out the argument I first heard from George Lakoff two years ago: that the incompetence (Katrina, the Iraqi occupation), venality (Duke Cunningham, Ken Lay) and corruption (Jack Abramoff, Tom DeLay) we've seen from the Bushies is not an aberration; it is the logical result of the governing philosophy they've implemented.

It seems fitting that Frank spoke in Austin on the day that the Sunset Commission staff recommended abolishing the Texas Residential Construction Commission, created of, by and for the homebuilders to shield themselves from responsibility for their actions by creating an almost criminally-incompetent and hog-tied bureaucracy.

Netroots Natron 2008 in Austrin

The Netroots Nation 2008 conference is in full swing this morning in Austin. It actually started sometime Wednesday evening with a party at the Cedar Door. Thursday night was a big night, with parties at the Club Deville and other locales. Friday night the big events were the GQ Magazine/Huffington Post party at Lambert's and the Daily Kos party at Maggie Mae's.

And then, of course, there was an actual convention, with keynoters and panels and interviews and speakers ... blah, blah, blah. I confess, I've not heard any of that. Today's speakers will include House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Vice President and current Chief Environmentalist Al Gore. I'll give them a listen.

I am posting pictures from the event on a Picasa web page here. Check back for updates. My favorite picture so far: David Kobierowski (my co-host on TEXAS POLITICS TODAY), Markos Moulitsas (of DailyKos fame) and me.

It's Time For Some Campaignin'!

This is the latest from the nutty geniuses at JibJab. Did they catch the zeitgeist of the election and the essentials of the main characters? You decide. Comments, please.

Send a JibJab Sendables® eCard Today!

Dilettantes on Parade

I was listening to a report from NPR's senior European correspondent Sylvia Poggioli about the G-8 summit meeting in Italy this week, when she threw out an offhand reference to the fact that the White House's official briefing book for the event included a reference to Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as a "political dilettante." It also had this to say about Italy: "a country known for governmental corruption and vice." Not exactly something you'd find in the tourist guides, so I suppose it made sense to put it in a briefing book.

ABC News has the full story here. It sounds like the White House briefing book is being written by Wikipedia.


Berlusconi in pre-dilettante days, on a state visit to Washington in 2003. I forget who the guy on the right is.

Jesse Helms, 1921-2008

Jesse Helms passed away on July 4, 2008. He represented North Carolina in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2003, the longest any Senator from that state has served. He was also an asshole.

Helms deserves respect upon his passing, but he also deserves honesty about his virulent racism, which lasted long past its political shelf life or social acceptability. He was vigorous and unashamed in his defense of segregation and his own personal racism, and age did not give him wisdom.

Like other politicians, he was a master at cloaking his baser motives in high-minded rhetoric. In a 1959 op-ed piece, he wrote, ""Compromise, hell! ... If freedom is right and tyranny is wrong, why should those who believe in freedom treat it as if it were a roll of bologna to be bartered a slice at a time?" Noble sentiments, until you realize that by "tyranny" he meant civil rights laws.

Rest in peace, Senator Helms. If there is a God, I hope He's black.

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!!

(Cross-posted at Burnt Orange Report.)

I believe that the Declaration of Independence is one of the great political documents of all time. Apparently, many other people do; the Declaration is one of the most-imitated charters of human freedom in the world. Even the Texas Declaration of Independence borrows its structure, ideas and some specific statements from the document written during a sweltering summer of 1776 in Philadelphia.

The Declaration articulates not only a case for the separation of the colonies from the English homeland, but lays out a view of humankind and a description of the relationship between a people and its government that was, at the time, revolutionary:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Imagine Johnny Carson had a TV show in England in 1776. He'd have read that and said, "That's crazy stuff!" Unalienable rights, given by God and not the king? The people creating the State, and retaining the power to un-create it? The people's right and duty to have a government, as Barbara Jordan put it, "as good as its promise?" These ideas were staples of philosophical treatises, but the Declaration of Independence was the first major document in which they were the operating principles of a democracy.

As we celebrate the 232nd anniversary of our nation's founding, let's enjoy what a radical and amazing idea it was at the time -- and re-commit ourselves to the making an America as good as its promise.

This video made by Declare Yourself and Constitution Live and executive produced by the incomparable Norman Lear. Give it a watch and listen, and see if you're not inspired.

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!

The Real Deal on the Real ID Act

(Cross-posted at Burnt Orange Report.)

In 2005, Congress passed the REAL ID Act, which (among other provisions) directed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to meet a 2008 year-end deadline for completing 670 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border. The Act also gave DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff broad authority to waive property rights, environmental, labor and other laws in order to get the job done. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene in the case of Defenders of Wildlife vs. Chertoff, in effect legitimizing the huge grants of power given to DHS in the REAL ID Act.

You could spend hours reading up on the REAL ID Act and all its implications -- or you could listen to two very informative news programs on your local community radio station. This week, two of KOOP's public affairs shows will be examining the REAL ID Act and its provisions assaulting the civil liberties of all Americans. The two shows are TEXAS POLITICS TODAY and SHADES OF GREEN.

On TEXAS POLITICS TODAY, airing Wednesday from 2:30 to 3:00 p.m. CDT, Melissa Del Bosque of the Texas Observer, whose coverage of the border wall controversy along the Rio Grande has won national acclaim, will discuss the border wall battle and the Chertoff decision. Melissa's coverage can be viewed here, here and on the Observer’s blog.

(N.B. -- TEXAS POLITICS TODAY is produced and co-hosted by yours truly.)

On SHADES OF GREEN, airing Thursday from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. CDT, a representative of the national Defenders of Wildlife organization will talk about that organization's lawsuit. Sheila Dean, an activist and blogger working on REAL ID issues, will also appear on Thursday's show.

KOOP, "the little station that could," is Austin's only community-owned radio station. It shares the FM 91.7 radio frequency with KVRX, the University of Texas student radio. It also streams live over the Web at http://www.koop.org/. KOOP is on the air on weekdays from 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. and on weekends from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.

Is America Ready For The Future?

Tom Friedman's column yesterday in the New York Times sets a somber tone as we head into the Fourth of July. He laments the sad state of American politics, particularly in the light of all the challenges we face as a nation:

My fellow Americans: We are a country in debt and in decline — not terminal, not irreversible, but in decline. Our political system seems incapable of producing long-range answers to big problems or big opportunities. We are the ones who need a better-functioning democracy — more than the Iraqis and Afghans. We are the ones in need of nation-building. It is our political system that is not working.

I continue to be appalled at the gap between what is clearly going to be the next great global industry — renewable energy and clean power — and the inability of Congress and the administration to put in place the bold policies we need to ensure that America leads that industry.

“America and its political leaders, after two decades of failing to come together to solve big problems, seem to have lost faith in their ability to do so,” Wall Street Journal columnist Gerald Seib noted last week. “A political system that expects failure doesn’t try very hard to produce anything else.”

His commentary on the lamentable state of our politics is right on. To take only one example, Congress is dithering on reauthorizing investment tax credits for renewable energy, which most analysts consider vital to expanding that industry, even though the credits have wide bipartisan support:

Even though many business leaders have lobbied Congress to extend the tax credits, Senate Republicans say a larger issue is at stake: the fate of President Bush's first-term tax cuts, due to expire in 2010. Many Republicans want to lock those in, and don't like the precedent of allowing some tax increases to make up for the cuts.

The deadlock has caused some friction between Republicans and traditional business allies. More than 400 companies signed a hastily organized letter to Congress urging passage of the tax incentives. The list included AT&T, General Motors, Bank of America, Time Warner and Archer Daniels Midland, along with Cisco Systems and Oracle.

Other manufacturers are growing impatient.

"The debate in Washington has almost reached a theological level, but we're losing a chance to gain U.S. jobs and leadership in a growing field," Morin of Applied Materials
said.

Or consider the sad case of Senator John Ensign of Nevada, whose state has the highest home foreclosure rate in the nation. He's holding up a homeowners mortgage relief bill that would help thousands of his constituents by insisting that the aforementioned renewable energy tax credits be added on to the bill. Both the homeowners relief bill and the investment tax credits have broad support, but Ensign's idea is a poison pill. The Democratic leadership wants the housing bill to be revenue-neutral -- which it would be but for the $6 billion in tax credits Ensign wants to add on.

Does Ensign know he's playing games? Sure! "I think that's a tough choice for them to make," he said, "and that's why we're trying to push them on it."

Here's Washington D.C. in a nutshell for you: kill a bill that everyone agrees is a great idea by adding to it something that everyone also agrees is a great idea, but which cannot fly because of another idea (revenue-neutrality) that everyone also thinks is a great idea. Only in D.C. could they fu*ck up something this badly.

Rick Perry Celebrates Milestone

The Houston Chronicle notes this morning that Rick Perry has now served the most consecutive days as Governor of Texas in history. (Bill Clements, having served two nonconsecutive four-year terms, still holds the overall longevity record Perry will surpass in December.)

Is Rick Perry better off than he was eight years ago? Certainly. He was then in his second year as Lieutenant Governor, his star hitched to George Bush's acendance to the presidency. Eight years later, he is not hitched to Bush's plummeting popularity and the emerging consensus that history will judge him one of our worst presidents. Perry, by contrast, is mildly popular, although his approval rating will continue to decline. He faces what could be a formidable challenge from Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 Republican primary, although he's stared her down twice before. (I am a member of the "Perry for Republican Nominee in 2010" club, since I happen to believe that a) Texas desperately needs a change of direction at the top and b) Perry will be the easiest Republican to beat.)

Whenever he leaves office, Perry will undoubtedly become a rich man. He's been an effective advocate for all manner of government profiteers, from private prison corporations to Spanish highway construction conglomerates to pharmaceutical companies. He epitomizes, in my opinion, the recessive gene of modern Republicanism's dual fixation on Government As The Enemy and Profit Maximization As The Only Social Value -- government as something to be mocked and ridiculed while feathering your friends nests' with no-bid contracts and thumb-on-the-scale public policy subsidized by taxpayers. In their gentleman's code, the elected officials and bureaucrats who pave the profiteers' way are rewarded with private-sector sinecures in the form of directorships or cushy positions as fixers.

So Rick Perry continues along his path, smarmily criticizing the "waste and inefficiency" of the government that pays $10,000 a month for him to live in a swanky Barton Creek home and biding his time until he cashes in.

Is Texas better off than it was eight years ago? You tell me. Our schools are worse, with the latest financing fix already inadequate and graduation rates declining. Our universities, victims of legislative inattention and malfeasance for a generation, are skyrocketing tuition and fees to make ends meet while Perry readies to do to higher education what No Child Left Behind did to K-12 education. The Texas economy is, Perry says, strong, although that has not translated into a better standard of living for most Texas families. Transportation continues to be a problem: Texas is growing fast and its transportation infrastructure is not keeping pace, in part at least because of Perry's unwillingess to ask Texans to invest in infrastructue improvements. Our prisons are overcrowded and our prison guards underpaid.

Congratulations, Governor. You're doing a heckuva job.

Joe Cocker's Woodstock version of the Beatles' "(With a) Little Help From My Friends" has always been a favorite of mine. The Beatles version, helmed by Ringo on vocals, was a pleasant piece of confectionary, but Cocker's version unpacked the true emotional power of the song and, as John and Paul no doubt intended, extemporized on the true meaning of friendship and the power it brings into our lives.

Finally, someone has captured Cocker's riffs in this captioned version of the Woodstock performance, highlighting, to be sure, Cocker's talent for improvisation but also the simple genius of the song's themes of alienation and intedependence in a post-industrial, post-modernist society. This new rendering of Cocker's groundbreaking performance allows us to fully appreciate the cultural watershed that was Woodstock.

Apropos of my posting the other day about the Republicans' "Drill Now, Drill Here, Pay Less" mass hallucination:

What Happened To You, Ralph Nader?

We hear a BAM.
Louis jerks.
Ordell shot him.
Louis falls back against the car door, eyes wide open, staring at Ordell.
Ordell takes the pistol, works the barrel up higher on Louis' side, right under his arm, and shoots him again.
This time Louis' head BANGS against the car door window. He slumps over, his life gone.
Ordell looks at him.
ORDELL: What the fuck happened to you, man? Shit, your ass use'ta be beautiful.

I thought of this great moment from Quentin Tarantino's "Jackie Brown" when I heard that Ralph Nader had said the following about Barack Obama:

I haven't heard him have a strong crackdown on economic exploitation in the ghettos. Payday loans, predatory lending, asbestos, lead. What's keeping him from doing that? Is it because he wants to talk white? He doesn't want to appear like Jesse Jackson? We'll see all that play out in the next few months and if he gets elected afterwards.

Concerned, apparently, that his remarks could be interpreted as anti-black, Nader went on to patronize white people:

He wants to show that he is not a threatening . . . another politically threatening African-American politician. He wants to appeal to white guilt. You appeal to white guilt not by coming on as 'black is beautiful, black is powerful.' Basically he's coming on as someone who is not going to threaten the white power structure, whether it's corporate or whether it's simply oligarchic. And they love it. Whites just eat it up.

To be sure, the problems of America's poorest urban communities deserve more attention than they've received. John Edwards talked about them some while he was still in the race. And, as Obama has pointed out, he has been talking about those issues. But Nader's attack is just sad and pathetic, and would be laughable coming from a lesser man.

What the fuck happened to you, Ralph Nader? Shit, your ass use'ta beautiful.

Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less: Stupid, Stupid, Stupid

The Republicans, from their dead-duck President to John McCain to the zombies who attended the Texas state Republican convention in Houston last week, have a new mantra: "drill now, drill here, pay less." This is the idea that we can reduce high gas prices RIGHT NOW if we just open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and all our offshore lands to exploration by our greedy oil and gas companies.

They are so anxious to shove this down America's throat that George Bush (remember him?) threatened Congress last week: "If Congressional leaders leave for the Fourth of July recess without taking action, they will need to explain why $4-a-gallon gasoline is not enough incentive for them to act.” What Bush did not say -- although I would not put it past the pathologically mendacious culture of the White House to do so -- was that allowing ANWR and offshore drilling would do anything to lower the price of gas in the near future.

Last Sunday on "Meet the Press," Senator Joe Biden took on the illusion of gas pump relief from this loony idea, pointing out that the oil and gas companies have plenty to room to dril if they want to:

They're not pumping what they could, number one. This is a gift, a gift to the oil companies by John McCain. They have now leased 41 million acres of offshore leases. They're only pumping in 10.2 million of those acres. Seventy-nine percent of all the offshore oil available off the coast of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, lies within those acres that they now have. Why are they not pumping? Why are they not doing this? Why are they not pursuing what's estimated to be a total of 70--54 billion barrels of oil at their disposal right now if they pump? Why are these greedy fellows deciding they want to go beyond that? It's because they want to get it in before George Bush leaves the presidency. It's because they're not pumping the oil to keep the price up. They are not even drilling. So here you have 30 million leased acres they have right now that possesses 79 percent of all the offshore, and they're not drilling. And John says they need more? And it would take 10 years for it to come online.

Senator Lindsey Graham, obviously uncomfortable at being confronted with actual facts, sputtered that no offshore drilling was allowed, even though his home state of South Carolina would welcome that (a statement I predict will come back to haunt him). Biden responded:

Let's get the facts. You're entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts. Forty million acres leased offshore, number one. Number two, the first well to be dug from the time they lease, if Lindsey gives them access to more area, it'll take 10 years from the time the lease is let to the time oil comes out of the bottom of the sea in the new leases.

So the gimmick is not a workable one, no matter how much McSame et al. flog it. Tom Friedman, the New York Times columnist who's taken a year off to write a book about the green economy, comes along with a piece in yesterday's paper that gets at the heart of how silly and evil this idea is. The whole op-ed is worth reading, but here's a good highlight:

Two years ago, President Bush declared that America was “addicted to oil,” and, by gosh, he was going to do something about it. Well, now he has. Now we have the new Bush energy plan: “Get more addicted to oil.” ... It’s as if our addict-in-chief is saying to us: “C’mon guys, you know you want a little more of the good stuff. One more hit, baby. Just one more toke on the ole oil pipe. I promise, next year, we’ll all go straight. I’ll even put a wind turbine on my presidential library. But for now, give me one more pop from that drill, please, baby. Just one more transfusion of that sweet offshore crude.

This is a horrible idea that will do nothing to lower gas prices and will delay the time when we actually begin seriously investing in renewable and alternative energy sources. The Republicans should be ashamed for parroting the latest oil and gas company nonsense.

Vote Republican!

A lot of people say the GOP's brand is a little dinged up now but, as these interviews with ordinary Americans show, people still know what the GOP stands for and why someone should vote Republican.

Where Have I Been?

I realized with horror the other day that I had not posted in almost a month, and resolved not to let June 14 go by without something. I guess you could say I'm two days ahead of schedule from that perspective.

The last month has been intense. I am doing a big project on private health insurance market reform for an advocacy group -- lots of research and writing, re-writing, and re-re-writing. Fun but intense, with a couple all-nighters thrown in.

I am also doing a radio show on KOOP, the little radio station that keeps burning down. I am enjoying that immensely, but it comes with its own blog and outreach to the public.

The summer is here prematurely, with Austin recording its 10th day of 100-degree temperatures yesterday. Today is supposed to be #11. As a friend pointed out in an email, it's been this hot and it's not even summer yet!

Edwards Endorses Obama

John Edwards has finally endorsed Barack Obama. So did NARAL ProChoice America.

Houseguests and fish

A friend forwarded me the latest fundraising appeal from Hillary Clinton. The forwarding email had my friend's one-line summary of the situation: "Why I'm in... BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW HOW TO GET OUT! love, hillary."

Hillary's fundraising appeal -- and let's be clear, it's all about the Benjamins -- reminds us of why she's really running: "I'm in this race for everyone who needs a champion... I'm in this race for the more than 16 million people like you who have supported me -- for the people who have put their hearts into winning this race. You never gave up on me, and I'll never give up on you."

Well, actually, they have given up on her. That's why she's $10 million-plus in debt. That's why no one thinks any money they give now will pay for a campaign going forward instead of retiring debt. That's why she stretched and strained to make her lopsided victory in West Virginia seem like, well, "Mission Accomplished," when even the chattering heads on TV could not muster the enthusiasm to act like it mattered. The only person outside her campaign who thinks she still needs to be taken seriously is Barack Obama. At least he says so, while his campaign has become focused on November and John McCain.

Hillary's become the houseguest who overstayed her welcome. No one talks about it around the house, but everyone knows. Even her. Breakfast conversations, once full of sunshine and excited chatter about the day ahead, are solemn and stilted. No one wants to go out any more, because the awkwardness takes all the joy out of doing anything that used to be fun. Everyone covertly glances at the calendar, where the flight info for her return home is posted.

"I hope I can make it another week," everyone prays.

The Empire Strikes Back?

Hillary Clinton's campaign, with its twin themes of ruthlessness and inevitability, has always invited comparison to the baddies running the Empire in the Star Wars trilogy. So the fanciful video posted on YouTube cannot be a total surpise.

The Entire Democratic Campaign in Seven Minutes

Molly's Bench

Molly Ivins died fifteen months ago, leaving a huge vacuum in (progressive) journalism -- and in the lives of many friends. She was a fixture in her Travis Heights neighborhood. Last night, those neighbors and other friends came together to dedicate a bench in Molly's honor at Big Stacy Park. There was a nice little ceremony where several friends shared some memories of Molly. Sweetest moment: Genevieve and Peter, who met at a Final Friday party at Molly's house five years ago this month and subsequently married, being the first to smooch on the newly-dedicated bench.

The dedication was followed by a Final Friday party, like the ones Molly hosted at her home for several years. Nice group of people, from different walks of life, coming together to share stories and food. In honor of Molly, the suggested cuisine was fried chicken and champagne.

It was a balmy Austin spring evening, and clouds eventually filled the sky. Soon they were backlit with silent lightning flashes. On my way home the storm hit, sheets of rain crashing over the windshield, occasional hailstones thumping on the roof. By the time I got home the brunt of it had passed, and so I sat on my patio, listening to distant thunder and the steady ticking of rain on the leaves.

R.I.P. Lena Guerrero, 1957-2008

I Consider Myself One of the Fortunate Few

According to BusinessWeek, Texas has surpassed New York as home to the most Fortune 500 companies. Fortune magazine annually compiles the list. This year, Texas is identified as home to 58 Fortune 500 companies, compared to 55 for New York and 52 for California. No wonder Arrrggghhh-nold is begging people to come work in California.

In other news, Texas Governor Rick Perry briefly visited an emergency room last night after he strained his shoulder patting himself on the back.

Happy San Jacinto Day!

Today is the 172nd anniversary of the Battle of San Jacinto, where a Texian force of 700 surprised and defeated a Mexican army force of about 1,400 under the commands of Generals Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna and Martin Perfecto de Cos. The battle was brief but brutal, and was followed by the massacre of many of the surrendering Mexican soldiers.

Santa Anna was captured after the battle and brought before a wounded General Sam Houston, commander of the Texian forces. Houston understood that Texas's best hope of independence lay in negotiating with Santa Anna (while holding him hostage) and so resisted his subordinates' entreaties to hang the Mexican President. Eventually, Santa Anna signed the Treaty of Velasco with the fledgling nation's new President, David Burnet. Santa Anna then traveled to Washington, D.C., where United States President Andrew Jackson confirmed his nation's interest in the independence of the new republic.

The Battle of San Jacinto changed the destinies of both the United States of America and the United States of Mexico.