It's gotten to the point in the Speaker's race where it's all down to the members. With 149 of them getting ready to vote tomorrow, I don't think even they know the outcome. Certainly, all the lobbyists, media wizards and other prognosticators are in the dark.
I worked for Rodney Ellis when he was, briefly, Lieutenant Governor following George Bush's election to the presidency and Rick Perry's installation as governor. The main event of Rodney's administration (MOTTO: "Seven days, seven hours and 32 minutes without a scandal") was the selection of a new Lieutenant Governor, who turned out to be Bill Ratliff. Like the current Speaker's race, there was enormous interest in the outcome. Also, there was lots of discussion of the process by which the new presiding officer would be selected. Like now, there was fear of retribution if senators ended up backing the wrong horse. In the end, the Senators decided to hold a secret ballot.
Like now, NO ONE knew what was really happening with the vote, and certainly not anyone in the lobby or the political class. I routinely had lobbyists come into the office with a theory of the day (and in the end, of the hour) about how Sibley was ahead or Brown was the consensus candidate or Ratliff had it all lined up. In the end, only the final vote itself mattered.
That's something to keep in mind as we nervously scan newspapers, blogs, and tea leaves for signs of the future.
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